Researchers suggest a new lockdown format, As the number of Coronavirus cases keeps rising day by day, the world claiming more and more lives each day and crushing the global economy. Scientists and researchers are trying to control the pandemic by simulating various lockdown scenarios for different countries.
In an EU-backed study published a few days ago, scientists and researchers from nine countries simulated to finalize the next step to attempt to contain the ongoing pandemic. The group modeled several different scenarios in 16 countries including Australia, Mexico, Belgium, and South Africa.
In the first scenario, the researchers did not impose any lockdown measures or social distancing measures in the 16 countries. This resulted in a massive increase in patients needing treatment in ICUs, much more than any country’s capacity. Finally, this would result in 7.8 million deaths across the country and the Coronavirus pandemic lasting for over 200 days in most of the countries.
In the second scenario, the group tried with 50-days of “mitigation measures” followed by 30-day relaxation. The “mitigation measures” include restrictions on public gatherings, hygiene rules, and isolating individuals with the virus. But, it was not a total lockdown scenario. So, this Scenario resulted in a decrease of the R-Naught (R0) of the virus to 0.8, R-Naught is the rate of reproduction of the virus. However, This leads to 3.5 million deaths with the pandemic lasting for 12 months for developed countries and at least 18 months for the other ones.
Now, in the third and the final scenario, the scientists applied the same 50-days lockdown and 30-days relaxation method. But, this time they imposed strict suppression measures during the 50-days period. Those suppression measures led to a decrease in the number of new infections.
In this final scenario, the researchers were able to achieve the lowest R0 for the virus, which is 0.5, with 1.3 million deaths across the countries. Researchers suggest this new Lockdown format to impose in most of the countries to counter Coronavirus. However, in this scenario also, the pandemic lasted for more than 18 months across 16 countries.
At the moment, the global economy is falling due to the Novel Coronavirus. According to the IMF( International Monetary Fund)Washington based organization said that the world is heading towards the biggest recession since the 1930s and they predict that the global economy will contract by 3% by the end of this year 2020.
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